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Don't hold your breath for Zimbabwe talks

By Peter Nhamo

Posted July 25, 2008 08:55:00
Updated July 25, 2008 11:17:00

Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai shake hands after signing a deal committing their parties to talks. (Reuters)

The leaders of Zimbabwe's opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, and the leader of the ZANU-PF, Robert Mugabe, have signed a "historic" and unprecedented deal which is expected to pave the way for power-sharing talks between the two parties.

While news of the agreement has been welcomed in many capitals and the mediator President Thabo Mbeki showered with praise for his efforts, I believe nothing substantive will result from the talks and the people of Zimbabwe will be the biggest losers in this process.

Many Zimbabweans do not believe Mugabe was sincere yesterday when he signed the agreement setting the agenda for talks in Harare. The man still ridiculed his opposition as puppets of the west and went even further to claim the presidency he won through hook and crook was legitimate. His demeanour and obvious arrogance were of a man who was not in the mood to share power let alone honour his agreement. We need not go into how Mugabe has shown contempt for the talks by sending junior members of his party to negotiate on his behalf. Had the man been serious he would have sent negotiators from his inner circle to negotiate on his behalf.

Mugabe just wants to get the Southern African Development Community (SADC) monkey off his back. Faced with the real threat of being suspended from the SADC summit in a few weeks, Mugabe wants to go to the summit and claim to be talking to the opposition. He will claim the two-week deadline in which they agreed to hold talks was not adequate and more consultation between him and the opposition is required.

I also foresee a situation in which Mugabe will throw the whole process into disarray and unilaterally appoint a government with elements of the opposition that he can buy off with his elaborate policy of patronage. When Morgan Tsvangirai and like-minded people raise voices of disapproval, Mugabe will accuse them of not having their own minds and being puppets of the west and of throwing spanners in the works - therefore forcing him to take action to "save" the country.

The fact of the matter is that African heads of state and government, by asking Mugabe to set a government of national unity, have set a dangerous precedent for the rest of the continent. They have cleared the way for African heads of state, when threatened with the possibility of losing power, to engage in heinous crimes against their own people. They endeavour to shield each other from the international courts by claiming that the arrest would destabilise their regions, as is the case with Sudan today! How pathetic.

As we await the outcome of the "talks", due in two weeks, I strongly urge the world not to hold its breath in anticipation of a resolution of Zimbabwe's problems. Mugabe and Mbeki are just waiting for the Zimbabwean issue to blow away from the world's attention and then continue abusing the Zimbabwean people's rights. I certainly believe that Zimbabwe should remain on the agenda of the United Nations Security Council and the African Union until another round of genuinely free and fair elections are held.

The world's progressive forces should continue to keep the world attention on Zimbabwe until the people of Zimbabwe have genuine democratic freedoms and which will be a launch pad for economic prosperity. An economic rescue package for Zimbabwe's devastated economy which now employs less that 15 per cent of its population should be cobbled up as a matter of urgency. It should be made clear that this package will be availed only after Mugabe gives up the reigns of power.

Mugabe and his allies on the other hand should continue feeling the pinch. The issue of targeted sanctions on the regime should continue. Their children should be sent back from western countries where they are studying and instead come face to face to the devastation their fathers have brought upon Zimbabwean people. Assets stolen and pillaged from the Zimbabwean people must be frozen and the attendance of these despicable people at any world forum must be met with the most outspoken criticism and protest.

Peter Nhamo is a pseudonym. The author, who lives in Zimbabwe, has requested anonymity.

Tags: world-politics, zimbabwe

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Comments (66)

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dragon:

25 Jul 2008 9:22:51am

'sincere' sits as well next to Mugabe as it did with Idi Amin !

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Roger Wilco:

25 Jul 2008 9:28:10am

This Zimbabwe issue has wholely become a problem for Zimbabwe, South Africa and at the most for the African continent. I don't see how this will change when Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution in July 2008 which would have imposed an arms embargo against Zimbabwe and financial and travel sanctions.

Tsvangiria was stupid for shaking Mugabe's hand. All it did was legitimise Mugabe's hold on the dictatorship. Don't hold your breath for solid international intervention. Mugabe will be in power until he croaks.

Dare i say it, at this point (violence, starvation, rampang inflation, etc) Zimbabwe would have been better off ruled by its former collonial power.

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el pancho:

25 Jul 2008 9:32:59am

yay for the UN...

mbeki should be thrown out after his pathetic appeasement of Mugabe.

Zimbabwe will just be a massive hole in the ground because of this sociopath

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MO:

25 Jul 2008 9:44:39am

A very good article with well reasoned positions.

Our left wing bretheren in Australia are strangely silent on this issue. Come on guys, explain to us how much better off the people of Zimbabwe are after having thrown off the colonial yoke.

Explain to us how the people of Zim are all equal under this maniac.

South Africa appears heading in the same direction. If that happens, wave goodbye to the whole continent in terms of human rights, self determination and prosperity.

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GDH:

25 Jul 2008 9:45:15am

I think the body langauge of Mugabe as he shook hands said it all. notheing has changed.

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Andrew Fynn:

25 Jul 2008 9:54:50am

It seems that only organization and brave resistance among the people of Zimbabwe will redeem this more than painful situation. A campaign of organized civil disobedience could do for black Africans in Zimbabwe what it did for Indians in South Africa.

Let the Zimbabwean Ghandi stand up. Or a nation of them.

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Wyndham:

25 Jul 2008 10:14:29am

The Zimbabwe issue once again highlights the inadequacies of the U.N.
Unless that organisation is run democratically, were every member regardless of size or power has equal influence and the majority rules it is of very limited use.

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Pen Pal:

25 Jul 2008 10:21:03am

The problem in Rhodesia started when Ian Smith unilaterally declared independence from Britain.

The problem was exacerbated when Britain agreed to self rule, Mugabe was elected, the name of the country changed to Zimbabwe and they hauled down the Union Jack - it has continued down the slippery slope ever since.

What's the inflation rate today - 2 million percent??

Morgan Tsvangari has shaken hands with the "devil" and will now be tarnished with all the evils perpetrated by Mugabe.

Mr Tsvangari should have shown Mugabe his middle finger and allowed him (Mugabe) to be further isolated.

Mr Mbeki wouldn't know what day of the week it is and I agree that South Africa is headed in the same direction.

The United Nations can't "frig" around anymore and there is no choice but for outside forces to take control, if for no other reason than for the safety, wellbeing and advancement of the ordinary Zimbabwean who wants to live a normal and peaceful life.

If peaceful civil disobedience is part of the Zimbabwean's armoury, then bring it on and tell Mr Tsvangari to "move aside" and get out of the way and we'll tell him when to come back and take control!

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erik:

25 Jul 2008 10:38:17am

its a shame america and the uk are bogged down in the middle east because this is a country and a continent for that matter that deserves our undivided attention.

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60+:

25 Jul 2008 10:45:55am

The situation in Zimbabwe is simply an extreme example of the post liberation political situation in many countries in Africa. The skills and attributes needed to conduct a successful revolution against a colonial government are not the same as those needed to run an independant country.

The problem is compounded by the legacy of colonial administration where the very borders of the country and it's administrative structures were established to allow a small central administration to control a large diverse population.

When a revolutionary administration takes over the country simply changed from a European dictatorship to an African dictatorship. Most dictators are very popular when they first arrive, 'liberators' even more so. The tragedy is that they have a reasonably clear plan to follow and while they may embrace the appearance of democracy the practice of popular elections is perverted into rule for life.

The return to rule by an elite either from the UN, a new colonial power like China or even to the next popular dictator may improve the lot of the people but it does not provide a roadmap to achieve 'Western democratic government'. The underpining of democracy is an effective (apolitical) public administration and public scrutiny.

If Mr Tsvangiria is able to gain power and immediately seeks to establish an open administrative system with public accountability then he is automatically preparing the ground for for his own loss of power. If he becomes part of the current system he becomes an extension of the problem.

The true achievment of Mandela in South Africa was his acceptance that he had to hand on power. His successor appears to not have fully learned that lesson and therefore is contributing to the problem in Zimbabwe rather than helping to solve it.

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lodza:

25 Jul 2008 10:59:48am

Nice story on Zim

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Bob:

25 Jul 2008 11:22:27am

The negative western media has only black power sharing/brokering agenda's at heart and doesnt paint an accurate picture of the real needs of the Zimbabwian peoples plight. I am african and have been to zimbabwe and visited the people myself. The inspiration for this shared government in my opinion can only be borne out of a necessary and real desire to work for the good of the nations future prosperity and development. To me, all the negative spin from the western media is nothing more than institutional racism and old school colonialism fostering resentment and hard line attitudes to old regimes which want to change. Accountability is important, however, this doesnt change the status necessarily of the people on the ground, and lets face it, those are all who matter.

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Bob:

25 Jul 2008 3:19:54pm

No one is justifying Mugabe's actions. He is a dictator and a tyrant, and Tsvangarai's motives for siding with the despot need to be questioned, however, if MUGABE is left alone in power, things will only get worse. At least with a 2nd official opinion on the power dynamic in Zimbabwe, the indigenous people there will have some power of negotiation in orchestrating change.

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henalf:

25 Jul 2008 3:31:25pm

The talk of Zimbabwe issuing banknotes of millions,just shows the insecurity of the banking system worldwide. One wonders what next country will issue practically useless banknotes? The gold standard of old, was at least some kind of check on finance. The world including Australia gave it away with glee. Lets hope it does not come back to haunt us!

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John:

25 Jul 2008 4:12:58pm

Thank you Peter for your courage which gets these messages out. Mugabe is a traitor to truth and has the brains to know it

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BJ:

25 Jul 2008 6:22:13pm

Mugabe is a firm believer in the one-party state, as he is a student of Marxism. There is no room for an 'opposition', after all in his eyes everyone should be grateful for his 'liberation' of the nation. Interesting how it refers to its own Cabinet as a 'politburo'.

A one-party state does not care how big the economic pie is, just that it controls 100% of it. Therefore a socialist dictatorship necessarily punishes itself economically to ensure opposition elements remain totally disenfranchised.

The history of Mugabe has shown that at every turn, moves towards talks with the opposition have always, without fail, been a prelude to a severe and violent crackdown on opposition supporters.

The nation is on the verge of economic collapse anyway. I'm guessing that the hyperinflationary policy of printing money was in response to an ever-shrinking tax base. This meant that even high level armed forces and civil servants weren't being paid anymore without it.

With prices doubling every twenty days and accelerating in growth, it's only a matter of time before civil chaos ensues so badly that not even the armed forces will be able to control it.

Is Zimbabwe another Somalia in the making with a failed central government and a breakdown of the nation proper into petty military and tribal fiefdoms ruled by the gun under local chieftains ??

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Jack:

25 Jul 2008 11:20:41pm

As history has shown us many times before, tyranny will fail eventually, but unfortunately it is the ordinary cictizen that suffers most. Lets hope this one falls quicker than most.

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SandyX:

26 Jul 2008 11:23:56am

I wonder if mugabe is suffering from an aging-related degenerative brain disease?

I remember a TV or radio series called something like 'Diseases that changed history' that examined the evidence of historical leaders suffering medical conditions that may have influenced their decisions and therefore the course of history.

While not having an intricate knowledge of Zimbabwe's history, I can see that this man was once a national hero and now is a murdering thug.

Now I know milliions suffer medical conditions and don't become murdering dictators, but is it possible this man has a disease (other than lust for power) that renders him unfit for office?

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aletea:

26 Jul 2008 7:31:20pm

"If altruism s the motivation then we would have rolled into Cuba, Iran, North Korea decades ago."

Iran and North Korea at a considerable stretch, but what are we liberating the cubans from exactly? Free, first class healthcare? Yes, by all means, we should roll the tanks in to Cuba so these poor oppressed people can have a proper choice, as we do, between overpriced private health insurance and/or waiting till they die. Posters here are amusing as always with their brainwashed and skewed views of the world. Zimbabwe needs the UN. Unfortunately the US has wrecked the UN. It's a sad world.

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Michael:

27 Jul 2008 5:45:28am

Mugabe is just a smart dole bludger. He knows how the system works and uses the knowledge to his advantage. His social security office is western aid agencies. He knows that people in the west feel pangs of guilt everytime they see a starving african child and that they make weekly salary deductions to feel better about doing something to help the world. The reality is that, in Zimbabwe, giving people enough calories to keep them alive probably stifles revolutionary intent. I suppose cutting off your arms and breasts in front of your family, as was reported to happen to one female MDC supporter pre presidential runoff, probably sitfles any remaining intent.
Imagine then for a moment that you are the UN buck stops here person in charge of what to do in Zimbabwe. Fortunately, you have a few choices like....
1. Wait for the senile old bugger to die and be replaced by the devil you might not know,
2. Agree with the people in this forum that say that revolution and deposition of Mugabe is imminent, or,
3. Go with the idea that any society is three meals away from revolution and cut off aid to speed the process.
Unfortunately, most of these options have some unpleasent drawbacks. While I'm not such a heartless bastard to condone starving the people of Zimabawe, or half of Africa for that matter, I do think that we need to examine how to stop aid inadvertently supporting the abuse of human rights. Any ideas????

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Zimbundy:

27 Jul 2008 9:19:49am

In shaking Mugabe's hand Morgan is not supid, it is strategic - no other tactic used to date has been recognised or accepted by Zimbabwe's neighbours in SADC or the larger community of the AU and Morgan and the MDC are not able to prevail alone. I admire MDC and Morgan's tenacity in challenging such an unashamedly corrupt and diabolical regime , but as the saying goes... keep your friends close and your enemies even closer.

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rb:

27 Jul 2008 11:22:15am

The whole mess in Zimbabwe is simply racism in reverse. Any criticism from "white" governments are viewed as colonial interference in "African" problems.

Just think what the reaction (in Africa) would have been if Mugabe was a "white" tyrant.

The reaction to the millions of starving Zimbabweans from African leaders (South African in particular) has been nothing short of disgraceful.

And the Russian and Chinese veto in the UN simply reinforced the view that these two countries will do anything to protect their interests, no matter how brutal their client regimes are.

Mugabe should have been arrested during his latest trip to Europe and put on trial for committing genocide against his countrymen and women.

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Don't hold your breath for Zimbabwe talks

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Comments (66)

dragon:

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