AFL Preview: Round 17
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Mouth watering... Lance Franklin will take to the field for Hawthorn against Geelong. (Getty Images: Mark Dadswell, file photo)
Another week, another blockbuster for the AFL. Fans have been waiting for the clash between the Cats and the Hawks since early in the season, and despite a small slip down the ladder from Hawthorn the match shapes as a beauty.
There are plenty of challenges for the tipsters elsewhere in the round, with some tough road trips on the cards for teams like Brisbane, St Kilda and Fremantle. Barry Hall and Matthew Richardson headline the inclusions.
Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats: MCG, Friday 7:40pm AEST
Anticipation could not be any higher for the biggest clash of the season. The quirks of the 2008 draw have meant that fans have had to wait until round 17 to get this match-up, but by the looks of ticket sales there is no doubting the interest generated. The Hawks will have to turn in a famous performance to win though, given the positively intimidating form of Geelong in recent weeks.
No team has come within 10 goals of reigning premiers since round 11, and last week's crushing final-quarter effort against the Bulldogs sent an ominous message to the rest of the competition. A surprise loss to the Saints has put Hawthorn on the back foot, and Alastair Clarkson's men will have to put their famed zone play to great effect to pull off a win. If either team takes the foot off the accelerator, they may find themselves behind the eight ball in this blockbuster. There are no big changes for either side but Luke Hodge may a late withdrawl.
*Nic's tip: Cats by four goals.
Essendon Bombers v Collingwood Magpies: MCG, 2:10pm AEST
Another loss to Collingwood last week has seen its hold on a top-four spot loosen, and a place in the finals is by no means a certainty with six rounds remaining. The Magpies simply could not hold onto its advantage against the Kangaroos last week. Consistency has not been typical of the Magpies this season, and the performance of the team seems to hinge on the performance of a few players every week. With names like Didak, Thomas and Medhurst it is not surprising that Collingwood has been up and down.
The Bombers have been impressive in recent times, and if had not been for some shrewd work by Joel Bowden on his defensive line there may have been a chance for the team in red and black. Dustin Fletcher's return is a boost against a side that boasts a dangerous if unpredictable forward line, but Mark McVeigh's continued absence is sure to hurt the Bombers. Expect the lead to change hands a few times in this match.
*Nic's tip: Bombers by three goals.
West Coast Eagles v St Kilda Saints: Subiaco, Saturday 2:10pm AWST
There are some big name changes for this match, with the suspension of Justin Koschitzke for the Saints on one side matched by the omission of Josh Kennedy and Darren Glass through injury for the Eagles. Much has been made of Michael Gardiner's return to Subiaco, and he comes back to the Saints' side thanks to Koschitzke's absence.
The Saints pulled off a morale-boosting win over Hawthorn last week and will fancy their chances against the Eagles. Given the fact that three of the past four matches between the two sides at this venue have ended with a St Kilda win, the Eagles' poor season is likely to continue this weekend. St Kilda has finals football to play for; the Eagles seemed to stop playing with real fire many rounds ago - signs point to an easy win to the visitors.
*Nic's tip: Saints by four goals.
Richmond Tigers v Brisbane Lions: Docklands, 7:10pm AEST
Matthew Richardson's return provides the headline for the Tigers, who come off a thrilling win over the Bombers that has lifted them to within one game of the top eight. The way Essendon has been playing the win was a valuable one for Richmond, who will surely benefit from the return of their new-found wing player. Terry Wallace's men will be desperate for a win ahead of a tough assignment against Geelong in two weeks.
Meanwhile Brisbane has been in patchy form of late, with a win against the Eagles last week providing fans with relief at best. There continues to be a revolving door around the fringes of selection - this week Rhan Hooper and Scott Harding make way for Jed Adcock and Justin Sherman. With Luke Power's fitness under a cloud midweek, the Lions will need a good team effort to snatch a win.
*Nic's tip: Tigers by two goals.
Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows: SCG, Saturday 7:10pm AEST
Sydney must win this match to keep alive any chances of a top-four spot. Form has been elusive for the Swans in recent weeks, and it only prevailed in a thriller last week against the Blues. They should be able to grab a win this week against an Adelaide side in the middle of a five-match losing streak. The clash is equally important for the visitors, who have seen their finals hopes slipping away week by week. Both sides take under-strength sides into the match.
The Swans lose two key players but are boosted by the return of two equally useful ones. Leo Barry and Michael O'Loughlin have both succumbed to injury, to be replaced by Barry Hall and Nick Malceski. Both replacements have a degree of uncertainty around them, with Hall's temperament and Malceski's fitness questionable. The Crows have their own fitness concerns, with Jason Porplyzia rushed back to cover for the loss of Luke Jericho and Graham Johncock.
*Nic's tip: Swans by five goals.
Port Adelaide Power v Fremantle Dockers: Football Park, Sunday 12:40pm ACST
This is the least attractive match-up of the weekend. Both sides are in indifferent form at best and the Power are under fire for only managing to attract a meagre crowd to last week's Showdown. The home side's situation is worsened by the loss of Brendon Lade, Chad Cornes and Shaun Burgoyne. But the Power has taken the points three of the past four times these sides have met, and should have the advantage this weekend.
The Dockers came back from a sluggish start last week to post a welcome win over the Demons. Matthew Pavlich is hitting form and finding the goals, and Byron Schammer's fine match was capped off with a solid tackling performance. If the visitors can take some momentum into this match then a win is not out of the question.
*Nic's tip: Power by two goals.
Melbourne Demons v North Melbourne Kangaroos: MCG, Sunday 2:10pm AEST
The Demons' poor season looks set to continue this weekend when they face a North Melbourne side in danger of losing its position in the top eight. Last week the Kangaroos fought to the end to post an exhilarating win over the Magpies, while Melbourne capitulated after a strong start against Fremantle, ending up 46-point losers.
The Demons simply overused the ball last week, racking up 49 more possessions than their opponents but failing to make inroads into the Dockers' defence. If North Melbourne can again surge off its half-back line then it should be in line for an easy win.
*Nic's tip: Kangaroos by eight goals.
Western Bulldogs v Carlton Blues: Docklands, Sunday 4:40pm AEST
While both sides come off round-16 losses, they will have emerged with different attitudes. The Blues were pipped in a thriller by the Swans, in another sign that Brett Ratten's side is more than capable of mixing it with the best of the competition. On the other hand the Bulldogs were embarrassed by a brutal last quarter from Geelong and must have been left seriously considering their premiership credentials.
The home side deserves its favouritism going into this match, but last time these two sides met the Blues won by 10 points. The Bulldogs almost snatched victory with a five-goal final term on that occasion, and after last week's fade-out they will be desperate to produce a similar performance.
*Nic's tip: Bulldogs by five goals.
